New UW analysis lowers coronavirus death projections and suggests hospitalizations may have already peaked in Washington

After a “massive infusion of new data,” modelers at the University of Washington are painting a much more optimistic picture of the novel coronavirus epidemic in the state, revising sharply downward their estimate of how many people are likely to die and suggesting Washington may have already passed the peak of hospitalizations.

The UW’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) says the state can expect roughly 632 deaths, compared to an estimate 10 days ago of more than 1,400 fatal cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.